Political instability and its consequences for developing countries

The standard definition of political instability is the propensity of a government collapse either because of conflicts or rampant competition between various political rivals. Also, the occurrence of a government change increases the likelihood of subsequent changes. Political instability tends to be persistent.

Economic growth and political stability are deeply interconnected. Where on one hand the uncertainty associated with an unstable political environment may reduce investment and the pace of economic development, on the other hand, the poor economic performance may lead to government collapse and political unrest. However, political stability can be achieved through oppression or through having a political party in place that does not have to compete to be re-elected. In these cases, the political stability is a double-edged sword. While the peaceful environment that political stability may offer is a desideratum, it could easily become a breeding ground for cronyism with impunity. Such is the dilemma that many countries with a fragile political order must face.

Political stability is by no means the norm in human history. Democratic regimes, like all political regimes, are fragile. Irrespective of the political regimes, if a country does not need to worry about conflicts and radical changes of regimes, the people can concentrate on working, saving, and investing. The recent empirical literature on corruption has identified a long list of variables that correlate significantly with corruption. And therefore, among the factors found to reduce corruption, are decades-long tradition of democracy and political stability. In today’s world, however, there are many such countries that combine one of these two robust determinants of corruption with the opposite of the other: politically stable autocracies or newly formed and unstable democracies.

Some see political stability as a condition that not only precludes any form of change, but also demoralizes the public. Innovation and ingenuity take a backseat. Many seek change in all sectors of life–politics, business, culture–in order to have a brighter future through better opportunities. Of course, change is always risky. Yet it is necessary. Political stability can take the form of complacency and stagnation that does not allow competition. The principles of competition do not only apply to business. Competition can be applied in everything – political systems, education, business, innovation, even arts. Political stability, in this case, refers to the lack of real competition for the governing elite. The ‘politically stable’ system enforces stringent barriers to personal freedoms. Similarly, other freedoms such as freedom of press, freedom of religion, access to the internet, and political dissent are also truncated. This breeds abuse of power and corruption.

Vietnam, for example, is controlled entirely by the ruling party. The economy is one of the most volatile in Asia. What once was thought of being a promising economy, has recently been in distress. Vietnam’s macro economy was relatively stable in the 1997-2006 period, with low inflation, a 7 to 9 percent total output expansion annually and a moderate level of trade deficit. But Vietnam could not weather the adverse impact from the 1997-1998 Asian financial turmoil, which partly curbed the FDI flow into its economy. Starting in late 2006, both public and private sector firms began to experience structural problems, rising inefficiency, and waste of resources. The daunting problem of inflation recurred, peaking at an annualized 23 percent level for that year.

On the supply side, cross-country competitiveness assessments show that Vietnam is falling behind, relative to the comparator economies. The proliferation of so-called “zombie” workers at Vietnam’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is only one of many manifestations of the economy’s underperformance. Economic growth last year was 5.03 percent. SOEs account for 40 percent of GDP. Many of them are hurting because they took advantage of easy credit to make foolish investments. Over the years, powerful interest groups within the ruling Communist Party have largely resisted calls to reform the SOEs. Senior party officials allegedly regard them as their personal cash crows.

While it is true that some African states who have been able to achieve high growth rates are stable, a number of relatively low performing African states also have remarkably stable political systems. When we talk about political stability in the context of growth, leaving aside resource-driven bubbles, we mean a specific kind of stability: the rule of law, strong institutions rather than powerful individuals, an efficient bureaucracy, low corruption and an investment enabling business climate. Indeed, what we really mean is that stable governance is crucial for growth. This admittedly academic distinction is an important one to recognize. Governance goes well beyond just politics.

When political stability comes with having one party or a coalition of parties in office for a long time, it may eventually be detrimental. The economy may do well in terms of attracting foreign direct investment because stability means a predictable political environment. However, other aspects of the society might suffer because of complacency, lack of competition, and opacity. The economy eventually suffers because of these. Consequently, stable governments do not necessarily lead to higher economic growth. India is another case in point. India’s performance on the economic front in the first 30 years of post-independence era, which epitomized political stability, exhibited 3 to 3.5 percent level of economic growth, lowest in the last sixty years. In contrast, in the last 20 years when India saw as many as four Prime Ministers, industrial growth rates jumped to double digits, something that had not happened before.

The most common causes of instability in governments are:
a. a change in the form of government – this is the most drastic cause because a “reform” government is often replacing a government which encouraged foreign business,
b. a shift in political parties – the policy of various parties quite often differs concerning restrictions or encouragements of foreign business,
c. a rise in feelings of nationalism – the people may pressure the government or party in control to negatively influence the extent of trade with foreign countries.

The rule of law and justice is the only way of maintaining stability in the developing countries. In democratic process, there is a direct connection between education and democratic values. Education enables peoples to stay informed through media, books, magazines, current affairs, and newspapers etc. The continuous failure of government wrong policies leads the people of country to miserable conditions.

There are many reasons behind political instability in developing countries. After the failure of one policy, government does not consider its failure and announce another policy without studying the aftermaths of the last one. Party leaders have their own interest and aims. It is difficult to point out all causes of unstable country, but the major problem of an unstable country is poverty, injustice and inequality, which are becoming the cause of crime and social disorder.

Heavy taxes and unemployment are crushing the people and they are forced to live below poverty line. Load shedding, high prices, drone attack and target killing especially in Karachi city are the gift for common people. Law and order conditions are out of control and all institutions have badly failed to provide justice to a common man. A system of fair accountability would help improve the situation.

The only solution is allowing the oppressed people of developing countries to share decision making process with transparency and accountability from top to bottom (devolution of power).

Concluding the discussion, we need to strengthen our political system and institutions, develop an active and sustainable government, eliminate corruption, provide timely justice, enhance employment, start steps for population control, seek consensus based political solutions, and resolve ethnic, sectarian and religious fault lines.

Overpopulation – Every Time Issue

Under the latest statistics, Pakistan becomes the fifth largest nations among the world and with its population increased from 40 million to 220 million in the last 73 years. The last census that took place in 2017 had a recorded population of 207 million while the current population under the 2017 census is recorded to be 221 million which is equivalent to 2.83% of the total world population based on the World-meter elaboration of the latest United Nations Data.

The United Nations reported that Pakistan’s population will expectedly rise to 400 million people by 2050 almost doubling the present number, making Pakistan the third most populous country of the world. The negative consequences of the large population will significantly worsen with the anticipated population increase.

The known saying of the American writer and professor, Sir Isaac Asimov, about overpopulation is “Democracy cannot survive overpopulation. Human dignity cannot survive it. Convenience and decency cannot survive it. As you put more and more people into the world, the value of life not only declines, but it disappears. It does not matter if someone dies.”

Overpopulation is perhaps the biggest predicament facing us. If we have a discussion of the major problems facing Pakistan nowadays like poverty, unemployment, socio economic problems etc. overpopulation is the main contributors to all issues which is the cause of concern in today’s world. The major factors responsible for overpopulation in Pakistan are early marriages, high fertility rates, preference of a son, religious constraints etc.

Let’s unfurl some of the major challenges the country is facing due to overpopulation,

• Pakistan has plenty of problems these days and unemployment is one of them. The people of Pakistan are considered highly talented and hardworking in the world but the engineers, doctors, scientists, accountants, technicians of Pakistan travel to foreign countries to earn their livelihood because the population is highly increased due to which the competition of job is quite high and all the people cannot get their due rights straightforwardly which cause numerous problems for the countrymen of Pakistan.

• Poverty is believed to be the leading cause of overpopulation. Since there is a gulf of a difference between the birth and the death rates, more people are being born than the ones dying which itself is the leading to the overpopulation of the country.

• Exhaustion of natural resources is also a factor contributing to overpopulation. It is the unequal and unreserved use of resources. The country has a limited capacity to generate raw materials and therefore, each year, the natural resources shortfall. In developing countries, over population causes stern rivalries to control resources.

• Overpopulation is also associated with the negative environmental and economic outcomes ranging from the impacts of over-farming, deforestation, and water pollution to eutrophication and global warming. It leads to increased industrialization and increased use of automobiles which causes environmental pollution.

• One of many menace, overpopulation also leads to eco-degradation by increasing air, water, soil and noise pollution, unhygienic conditions, with deforestation leading to floods and soil erosion. Rapid increase in population is creating increased pressure on the infrastructure, economy, environment etc.

The growing population in Pakistan has caused us many problems in terms of social, economic, and environmental ways, it is not just the public of Pakistan, the country caters to the largest numbers of immigrants in the world- especially the afghan refugees who have unignorably contributed to an increase in the outburst of population within the country.

Concluding the talk, the Pakistani government needs to resort ways to control it: by providing better education, by raising awareness of family planning, and by various ways before an unbanked number of people over flow in the limited territory and resources.

بدلتے علاقائی حالات اور پاکستان

پڑوسی ملک افغانستان میں طالبان کے حملوں کے نتیجے میں گزشتہ دو ہفتوں کے دوران 450 افراد جاں بحق اور زخمی ہوئے جبکہ افغان حکومت نے افغان مشاورتی جرگہ کی سفارش پر ان 400 ہارڈکور طالبان قیدیوں میں سے 80 کو گزشتہ روز رہا کردیا ہے جن کے مسئلے یا مطالبے پر اب تک انٹرا افغان ڈائیلاگ کا اعلان یا آغاز نہیں ہوا ۔
افغان وزارت داخلہ کے جاری کردہ رپورٹ میں کہا گیا ہے کہ طالبان نے گزشتہ 14 روز کے عرصے میں ملک کے 29 صوبوں میں حملے کیے جس کے نتیجے میں 450 افراد نشانہ بنے۔ دوسری طرف فورسز کی کارروائیاں بھی جاری رہیں جن میں زابل کا وہ واقعہ بھی شامل ہے جس کے دوران بعض افغان فوجیوں نے جاں بحق طالبان کی لاشوں کی بے حرمتی کرکے تالیاں بجائی تھیں اور طالبان کے علاوہ عالمی سطح پر بھی اس رویہ کی شدید مذمت کرتے ہوئے ایسے واقعات کو مجوزہ مذاکرات اور امن کی کوششوں کے لیے خطرہ قرار دیا گیا۔ عالمی میڈیا میں اقوام متحدہ کی اس رپورٹ پر بھی تبصرے جاری ہیں جس میں کہا گیا تھا کہ افغانستان میں 5000 سے زائد پاکستانی ٹی ٹی پی کے جنگجوؤں قیام پذیر ہیں جو کہ ماضی میں پاکستان پر حملوں میں ملوث رہے ہیں۔
اس قسم کی شکایات اور واقعات میں مسلسل اضافہ ہورہا ہے کہ افغانستان میں موجود طالبان ماضی کی طرح ایک بار پھر پاکستان خصوصاً خیبرپختونخوا کے کاروباری اور سیاسی لوگوں کو کالز کے ذریعے دھمکیاں دے کر ان سے بھاری رقوم کا مطالبہ کرنے لگے ہیں جس کے باعث پشاور سمیت مختلف قبائلی اضلاع کے لوگوں میں خوف و ہراس پھیل گیا ہے جبکہ سیکورٹی فورسز نے بعض اطلاعات کی بنیاد پر متعدد قبائلی اضلاع میں سکیورٹی کے انتظامات سخت کر دئے ہیں اور اس بات کو یقینی بنانے کی عملی کوششیں کی جارہی ہیں کہ اگر افغانستان میں حالات پھر سے خراب ہونے لگے تو خیبر پختونخوا اور بلوچستان کے پشتون علاقوں کو محفوظ بنایا جاسکے کیونکہ افغانستان میں کسی بھی وقت کچھ بھی ہو سکتا ہے اور پاکستان وہاں کے حالات سے لاتعلق نہیں رہ سکتا ۔
عالمی میڈیا اور تجزیہ کاروں کی رپورٹس کے مطابق افغان حکومت اور امریکی اداروں میں بعض ایسی لابیاں موجود ہیں جو کہ بوجوہ نہ صرف مجوزہ مذاکراتی عمل کو ناکام بنانا چاہتے ہیں بلکہ ان کی کوشش ہے کہ پاکستان اور افغانستان کے حالیہ بہتر تعلقات کو خراب کر کے بدگمانیاں پیدا کی جائیں۔ شاید انہی کوششوں کا نتیجہ ہے کہ افغانستان میں بھارت اور امریکہ کے بعض میڈیا اداروں نے حال ہی میں پاکستان کے بارے میں غیر حقیقت پسندانہ اور یکطرفہ رپورٹس شائع کیں اور یہ الزام بھی لگایا گیا کہ پاکستان اپنے طالبان کے ذریعے افغان فورسز پر حملے کرانے کی کوشش کر رہا ہے حالانکہ اقوام متحدہ کی رپورٹ نہ صرف اس تاثر کی نفی کرتی ہیں بلکہ اس میں ان ٹی ٹی پی حملہ آوروں کی تعداد اور تفصیلات بھی بتائی گئی ہیں جو کہ افغانستان میں قیام پذیر ہیں اور ان کو بلا واسطہ بعض افغان اداروں کی سرپرستی حاصل ہے۔
افغانستان کے سفیر عاطف مشال نے گزشتہ ہفتے آرمی چیف، صدر پاکستان، سپیکر قومی اسمبلی، وزیر خارجہ اور نمائندہ خصوصی برائے افغانستان سمیت متعدد سیاسی لیڈروں سے ملاقاتیں کیں جن کے دوران انہوں نے قیام امن, تجارت کے فروغ اور مہاجرین کی میزبانی پر پاکستان کے کردار کو سراہا اور شکریہ ادا کیا ۔ تاہم سبوتاژ پر یقین رکھنے والے بعض بااثر افراد ایک پلاننگ کے تحت دونوں ممالک کے بہتر تعلقات اور اعتماد سازی کو متاثر کرنے کی کوشش کر رہے ہیں جس پر افغان اور پاکستانی حکومت دونوں کو کڑی نظر رکھنا ہوگی کیونکہ ایک پرامن افغانستان کو پاکستان اپنی ضرورت قرار دیتا رہا ہے اور دوسری طرف مجوزہ مذاکراتی عمل میں عالمی برادری اور افغانستان کو پاکستان کی ضرورت ہے۔ ماہرین بعض قبائلی اضلاع اور بلوچستان کے پشتون علاقوں میں ہونے والے بعض واقعات اور سرگرمیوں کو افغانستان کے بدلتے حالات کے تناظر میں دیکھ رہے ہیں اس لیے لازمی ہے کہ صورتحال پر نظر رکھی جائے۔